Polystyrene (PS) prices are affected by a combination of factors, as follows:
Raw material price fluctuations::
crude oil price: Crude oil is the basic raw material for the production of styrene, which in turn is the key monomer for the synthesis of polystyrene. Therefore, changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on the price of polystyrene. When the crude oil price rises, the cost of styrene production increases, which in turn drives up the price of polystyrene. For example, when crude oil supply is unstable due to international tensions, crude oil price rises sharply, the cost pressure of styrene producers increases sharply, and the market price of polystyrene also rises. Typically, for every US$10/barrel increase in oil prices, the cost of styrene increases by about RMB 400/tonne, which is directly transferred to the price of XPS.
Styrene pricesAs the direct raw material for polystyrene production, styrene price fluctuation is highly correlated with the price of polystyrene. 2024 - 2025, styrene market is affected by factors such as plant maintenance, price change of raw material pure benzene and downstream demand expectation, and price fluctuation is frequent. For example, in the first half of 2024, supported by pure benzene, styrene price goes up all the way, in the range of RMB 8400 - 9800 / ton; in the second half of 2024, due to the increase in the supply of raw material pure benzene and the weakening of the downstream demand expectations, the center of gravity of styrene price shifts downward. These changes in styrene prices directly lead to the same fluctuation of polystyrene prices.
Supply and demand in the market::
Supply side: If the capacity of polystyrene producers expands, or if new producers enter the market, supply increases significantly without a synchronized increase in demand, and the market becomes oversupplied, which can lead to a decline in polystyrene prices.2024 The German polystyrene market, which is well-supplied or even oversupplied as a result of high inventory levels and steady production by major manufacturers, and a large influx of imports from regions such as Asia, has made the price of general-purpose Polystyrene (GPPS) prices have continued to fall in July, and as of the third week of July, prices stood at $1,810 per metric ton (FD - Hamburg basis), down 2.4% from the previous week, and 4.8% overall since the beginning of the month. Conversely, when some production units are shut down due to breakdowns, maintenance or force majeure factors, resulting in a reduction in supply, an oversupply situation can drive polystyrene prices higher if demand remains stable or grows.
Demand side: Polystyrene is widely used in many industries such as packaging, electronics and electrical appliances, construction, toys and so on. When these downstream industries develop well and demand for polystyrene is strong, it will drive its price up. In the electronics and electrical appliances industry, with the accelerated replacement of home appliances and the emergence of new electronic products, the demand for polystyrene continues to grow, which in turn supports the price of polystyrene . On the contrary, if the market downturn in the downstream industry shrinks the demand, such as the decrease in demand for polystyrene in major downstream industries such as automobile production of electric vehicles and the construction industry in 2024, it will put downward pressure on the price of polystyrene.
Macroeconomic environment::
economic growth story: In times of economic prosperity, production activities in various industries are active, increasing the demand for polystyrene and driving up prices. For example, when the GDP growth rate of a country or region is high, the expansion of construction, manufacturing and other industries, the demand for polystyrene products such as packaging materials, building insulation materials (e.g., expandable polystyrene EPS used for building insulation), and so on, greatly increased, which led to the rise in the price of polystyrene. However, in the stage of economic recession or slowdown, enterprise investment and residents' willingness to consume decreases, the demand for polystyrene in downstream industries decreases, and the price tends to fall.
Inflation and interest rates: Inflation can lead to higher production costs, including the cost of raw materials, labor, and transportation, which can drive up the price of polystyrene. Interest rate changes will also affect the price of polystyrene, higher interest rates will increase the cost of enterprise financing, inhibit investment and consumption, reduce the demand for polystyrene, so that the price fell; on the contrary, lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, increase demand, and is conducive to the rise in the price of polystyrene .
Policies and regulations::
environmental policy: Increasingly stringent environmental protection policies have imposed higher requirements on polystyrene producers. Enterprises need to invest more funds in the construction and operation of environmental protection facilities to meet environmental standards such as pollutant emissions, which increases production costs, which in turn may drive up the price of polystyrene. In some areas, due to environmental requirements, the emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the production process of polystyrene is strictly controlled, and some small and medium-sized production capacity enterprises are unable to meet the standards and cut production or shut down production, which reduces the supply in the market, and may also contribute to the increase in prices.
Import and export policy: Policies such as import and export tariffs and trade quotas affect the international trade pattern of polystyrene, which in turn affects prices. If a country raises import tariffs on polystyrene, it will increase the cost of imports, reduce the volume of imports, and reduce supply in the domestic market, driving up prices. Conversely, lowering tariffs or increasing import quotas will increase the volume of imports, intensify competition in the market, and prices may fall .
competition from substitute goods: Plastic materials such as polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) can be used as substitutes for polystyrene in some applications. When the price of substitutes decreases and their performance meets the requirements for use, downstream enterprises may choose substitutes and reduce the demand for polystyrene, resulting in a decrease in the price of polystyrene. In the packaging sector, if the price of polypropylene decreases, some companies that originally used polystyrene packaging may switch to polypropylene packaging, resulting in a decrease in polystyrene's market share in this sector and price suppression . On the contrary, if the price of substitutes increases, the competitiveness of polystyrene increases and the price may rise.
